Search found 5 matches

by Willie
Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:40 pm
Forum: Simulation mechanics, assumptions, and inputs
Topic: suggestions
Replies: 2
Views: 6464

Re: suggestions

Some suggestions: 1. Allow for setting up spouse as second set of data. Probability of success would be composite data if spouse is included. 2. Allow changing a single value, e.g., just the S/D for "Portfolio Return" within the the cell for the entry line, rather than generating another entry line...
by Willie
Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:59 am
Forum: Simulation mechanics, assumptions, and inputs
Topic: Assumptions about Stock/Bond?Intnl returns
Replies: 4
Views: 10537

Re: Assumptions about Stock/Bond?Intnl returns

Hello. I've always been skeptical of published returns out there on the various investment mixes. I could never figure out how these numbers were calculated or where they came from, and they always seemed high to me. So I went looking for historical data and found Robert Shiller's historical returns...
by Willie
Fri Dec 27, 2013 2:07 pm
Forum: Simulation mechanics, assumptions, and inputs
Topic: Prob success (# failures)
Replies: 5
Views: 6592

Re: Prob success (# failures)

Thanks Jim for all your usefull feedback. I tried applying this to my actual plan and the numbers aren't working. Retirement age 56 End of plan 100 Stable scenario expenses are $45000/yr (doesn't change) 100% prob of success 6% shortfall 100(1) at 83 100(3) at 99 So 44 years in retirement = 44x45000...
by Willie
Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:20 am
Forum: Simulation mechanics, assumptions, and inputs
Topic: Prob success (# failures)
Replies: 5
Views: 6592

Re: Prob success (# failures)

Ok. Thanks for all that. I think I mostly understand now. So in this example above, the 12% shortfall can also be thought of as making it 88% (100-12) of the way through my 40 years before a possible failure occurrs (total nestegg going below zero dollars). If I graph it by checking the box below th...
by Willie
Thu Dec 26, 2013 1:31 pm
Forum: Simulation mechanics, assumptions, and inputs
Topic: Prob success (# failures)
Replies: 5
Views: 6592

Prob success (# failures)

Hi. I couldn't find an answer to this in the documentation. In my plan results under details in the far right column it says for example for one of the years, 100(2). Does this mean that out of 10,000 simulations, 2 ran out of money? Is 'every' line the result of 10,000 runs? So if I have a 40 year ...