Search found 5 matches

by herbsims
Wed Sep 19, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Simulation setup - force it to use savings when market goes negative - How?
Replies: 1
Views: 549

Simulation setup - force it to use savings when market goes negative - How?

OK, here is a scenario that I want to explore. Let's assume that I have a savings account (taxed) that during down years on the simulation where the market goes negative I force the simulation to pull money out of a savings account to make up for the missing 401(k) funds that I would normally use an...
by herbsims
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis - Probability of success
Replies: 6
Views: 1147

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis - Probability of success

To comment on the standard deviation. One sigma only captures 65% of the random possible samples, 2 sigma captures 95%, and 3 sigma captures 99.7% of the possible data. So why wouldn't I want to use a higher SD to make the simulation more "real world"? For example, the funds that I am tracking has a...
by herbsims
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Income Received within Summary of Retirement Planner Simulation Results
Replies: 1
Views: 538

Income Received within Summary of Retirement Planner Simulation Results

Guys and Gals,

My next question. Is the Income Received showing PRE or POST tax? In other words, is this the actual cash I can spend, or do I have to take out taxes from that income and then what ever is left over is what I have available to spend?

Thanks in advance,

Herb
by herbsims
Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis - Probability of success
Replies: 6
Views: 1147

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis - Probability of success

"It might be interesting to set a fixed spending amount and run the sensitivity analysis with the range of returns and standard deviations specified separately. " So what typical values would be input for the returns and SD? I am assuming a 2-4% return (conservative), so would I also be conservative...
by herbsims
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis - Probability of success
Replies: 6
Views: 1147

Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis - Probability of success

OK, I am not sure why the simulations are doing this. When I run the sensitivity analysis with the output being the Probability of success goes DOWN as my Portfolio RETURNS go UP? In my mind, if I have a return of 2% then my probability of success is 100%, but if my return is 6% then I should have a...