Search found 634 matches

by jimr
Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: reduced expected return
Replies: 5
Views: 174

Re: reduced expected return

The short answer is that yes, as long as the standard deviation is high enough, the randomly selected return will almost certainly be negative in some years of some simulation paths. In the example you cited, I'd guess the simulation would draw negative returns thousands of times during a single run...
by jimr
Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Rates (where to look for averages) ?
Replies: 1
Views: 15

Re: Rates (where to look for averages) ?

These questions fall more under "financial planning advice" than "program technical support" and since I'm not a financial planner or a tax professional, nothing I post should be considered financial planning or tax advice. That said, this topic has links to some potentially helpful external resourc...
by jimr
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:45 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Quick Question
Replies: 10
Views: 42

Re: Quick Question

Also, not sure if you're aware of this, but the simulation taxes all portfolio gains in the year they are earned (eg the taxable portfolio is carried at a 100% cost basis).

Could that account for the discrepancy you're seeing?
by jimr
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Quick Question
Replies: 10
Views: 42

Re: Quick Question

You can correspond by email at info@flexibleretirementplanner.com
by jimr
Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Quick Question
Replies: 10
Views: 42

Re: Quick Question

Also, are you using the latest version of the program (version 04.03.03 Built on 7/10/2020)?

You can get the version by clicking the Help->Release Notes menu option at the top of the main window.
by jimr
Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Quick Question
Replies: 10
Views: 42

Re: Quick Question

I guess there is some stuff in additional inputs, so I'll need more pages from the report to reproduce what you're seeing.
by jimr
Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Quick Question
Replies: 10
Views: 42

Re: Quick Question

Actually, it sounds like something different must be going on in your case then. The issue I was talking about would only occur if you actually did originally type in 3.53%. Since you didn't do that, this isn't the issue and I can't explain the numbers you're seeing. Do you have anything configured ...
by jimr
Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Quick Question
Replies: 10
Views: 42

Re: Quick Question

I think you may have found a kind of weird bug. By any chance could you have originally entered 3.53% for the return instead of 3.5%? If you did, this would explain what you're seeing. If the return is 3.53%, then $257,923 x (1+.0353) / 1.02 = $261,792 The reason this is confusing (and technically a...
by jimr
Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Creating a drawdown schedule with 90-93% success
Replies: 4
Views: 30

Re: Creating a drawdown schedule with 90-93% success

Yes. That's in settings. Look for minimum and maximum percent of expenses to fund under Spending Policy Parameters.
by jimr
Sat Nov 21, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: General questions and comments
Topic: Creating a drawdown schedule with 90-93% success
Replies: 4
Views: 30

Re: Creating a drawdown schedule with 90-93% success

It's actually very tough to accomplish what you'd like to do using a probabilistic model. This is because the ending portfolio value shown is a median value, or 50th percentile value. It's determined by taking the ending portfolio values from all 10,000 simulation iterations or paths, sorting them, ...