### Probability density function?

Posted:

**Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:38 pm**Dear FRP,

First, YOU ROCK. I have been using FRP over the last couple weeks and just made a donation. This is an awesome tool.

I am interested in your model that predicts returns and how it might be made more accurate. There are well-known weaknesses with using a normal distribution to model stock market returns. I recently discovered this article, and while I am not a finance guy I am a quantitative guy, and it reads sensibly and well:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/395993 ... ch-laplace

I see from your shared source that you use a normal distribution with the mean and SD I choose. I would love to see (and would be willing to contribute effort to!) a version that supports a choice of probability density functions. I'm not so great a Java but I believe all it would need is a switch on one line in the calc and a little bit of interface tweaking to support the choice. If laplace isn't built into base it's in plenty of good libraries...

Many thanks and many more-

Ethan

First, YOU ROCK. I have been using FRP over the last couple weeks and just made a donation. This is an awesome tool.

I am interested in your model that predicts returns and how it might be made more accurate. There are well-known weaknesses with using a normal distribution to model stock market returns. I recently discovered this article, and while I am not a finance guy I am a quantitative guy, and it reads sensibly and well:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/395993 ... ch-laplace

I see from your shared source that you use a normal distribution with the mean and SD I choose. I would love to see (and would be willing to contribute effort to!) a version that supports a choice of probability density functions. I'm not so great a Java but I believe all it would need is a switch on one line in the calc and a little bit of interface tweaking to support the choice. If laplace isn't built into base it's in plenty of good libraries...

Many thanks and many more-

Ethan