Back to work probability
Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:49 am
Hi -
I have a few questions...my probability of success is 90%, provided I/we don't mind returning to work for 5 years. It says the probability of me returning to work is 30%.
1 - how does it know what salary I'd make? Does it just assume I'd make enough to cover my expenses?
2 - If I don't return to work, my probability of success is 84%, with an average spending shortfall of 34% (but my median ending portfolio is $5.6M). I would think my original 90% / 30% results would influence my success probability more than 6%...or that the 30% chance of returning to work would more closely align with the chance of success (so if I'm "doomed" to fail 1 times in 10, wouldn't the chance of returning to work be something more like 10 - 15% vs 30%?). I'm hoping someone can explain this to me.
Thank you for an awesome calculator. We have a few years that will have higher planned expenses, and I've been able to account for that. I've even been able to configure my Roth conversion ladder by withdrawing from my tax-deferred account X$/year and contributing to my tax-free account by the same amount. VERY few calculators have this amount of flexibility. Thank you!
I have a few questions...my probability of success is 90%, provided I/we don't mind returning to work for 5 years. It says the probability of me returning to work is 30%.
1 - how does it know what salary I'd make? Does it just assume I'd make enough to cover my expenses?
2 - If I don't return to work, my probability of success is 84%, with an average spending shortfall of 34% (but my median ending portfolio is $5.6M). I would think my original 90% / 30% results would influence my success probability more than 6%...or that the 30% chance of returning to work would more closely align with the chance of success (so if I'm "doomed" to fail 1 times in 10, wouldn't the chance of returning to work be something more like 10 - 15% vs 30%?). I'm hoping someone can explain this to me.
Thank you for an awesome calculator. We have a few years that will have higher planned expenses, and I've been able to account for that. I've even been able to configure my Roth conversion ladder by withdrawing from my tax-deferred account X$/year and contributing to my tax-free account by the same amount. VERY few calculators have this amount of flexibility. Thank you!