understanding % of expenses funded
Posted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:44 am
Hi Jim,
In many of my runs, the planner returns a "Probability of Success 100%" report. But, then, under that, it reports an "Average Spending Shortfall" of, for example, 47%. This number will vary, going slightly up and slightly down.
When I look at "Detailed View" I see that virtually every year shows 100% of expenses funded, and under "Probability of Success (# of Failures)" "100%(0)"
On the very few years where the planner says that % of expenses funded is 98 or 99%, under Probability of Success it says "100(1)" which I take to mean there is some sort of failure with the spending level (?).
If the probability of success is 100%, how can there be a failure of this magnitude (47%, or more, as above).
I did notice that if I reduce my retirement expenses by $20,000, this discrepancy still occurs, though less frequently. IOW the planner reports 100% Success with Average Spending Shortfall of 0% most times, but sometimes with 42% shortfall.
In many of my runs, the planner returns a "Probability of Success 100%" report. But, then, under that, it reports an "Average Spending Shortfall" of, for example, 47%. This number will vary, going slightly up and slightly down.
When I look at "Detailed View" I see that virtually every year shows 100% of expenses funded, and under "Probability of Success (# of Failures)" "100%(0)"
On the very few years where the planner says that % of expenses funded is 98 or 99%, under Probability of Success it says "100(1)" which I take to mean there is some sort of failure with the spending level (?).
If the probability of success is 100%, how can there be a failure of this magnitude (47%, or more, as above).
I did notice that if I reduce my retirement expenses by $20,000, this discrepancy still occurs, though less frequently. IOW the planner reports 100% Success with Average Spending Shortfall of 0% most times, but sometimes with 42% shortfall.