Back to Work probability
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:19 pm
Hi Jim,
I've setup a scenario where I run it at Below/Moderate/Above Average styles. They'll come back with a success probability of 99.8,98.9,95.8%. I run those without the back to work turned on.
I then turn on back to work and rerun for the 3 investment types, and the probability of success barely changes (99.9,99.7,98.0%), but I have a back to work probability of 70-90%?
I've tried both flexible and stable spending rules. I'm not sure I understand why I would have such a high probability of back to work, when I only had a small number of failures.
I have the back to work set at 85% of portfolio for 2 years. I would think this should put me at 100% success?
Any insights?
Thanks
I've setup a scenario where I run it at Below/Moderate/Above Average styles. They'll come back with a success probability of 99.8,98.9,95.8%. I run those without the back to work turned on.
I then turn on back to work and rerun for the 3 investment types, and the probability of success barely changes (99.9,99.7,98.0%), but I have a back to work probability of 70-90%?
I've tried both flexible and stable spending rules. I'm not sure I understand why I would have such a high probability of back to work, when I only had a small number of failures.
I have the back to work set at 85% of portfolio for 2 years. I would think this should put me at 100% success?
Any insights?
Thanks