Output from Goal Seek Minimum Return

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drbrandt1
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:52 pm

Output from Goal Seek Minimum Return

Post by drbrandt1 »

The output lists as "-0.6% (0.0%)"

What do these 2 numbers refer to? I assume the first means the plan can sustain a negative return of 0.6% and still be successful. What does (0.0%) mean? Also, I set the Goal seek probability of success to 98%, but the outcome of the goal seek run stated 100%.

Thanks in advance.

Doug
jimr
Posts: 821
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:48 pm

Re: Output from Goal Seek Minimum Return

Post by jimr »

Since the probability of success didn't end up at the target probability, that means goal-seek wasn't able to converge on a result and the output isn't valid.

It might help to set the return to custom and try some different return/std deviation numbers to see if you can get it to converge (the starting values are used as the seed for goal-seek).
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