what are your default portfolio return numbers

[lonnie]

If I fill in the portfolio return numbers with values that I think are reasonable, the return seems to be way below what the FRP uses by default. What are the default return numbers and how did you arrive at them? (I am using the 41-45-15) moderate risk allocation choice.

[jimr]

lonnie,

Thanks for trying out the planner and for posting to the forum.

The return/standard deviation pairs that are associated with the "canned" investing styles in the planner are an amalgam. They are based on published returns for index-only portfolios, with adjustments made to account for expenses.

It's an unfortunate reality that it's hard to find numbers that everyone agrees on. Usually, I get complaints that my returns are too conservative, so I'm interested in hearing the source of the numbers you are using that's producing even more conservative numbers. Also, please understand that the return numbers I use are nominal returns, not "real" returns. Because I account for inflation separately, I use a nominal portfolio return as an input and then reduce the portfolio for inflation after calculating the portfolio growth.

Another thing that's important to understand is that the portfolio return by itself only tells part of the story and the standard deviation (or volatility) can be nearly as important as the return in terms of whether a given plan will succeed. In order to compare numbers from different sources, you need to consider both the return and the standard deviation together.

Finally, If you don't want to use the numbers I've chosen for the standard portfolios, you can always override these by using the "custom" option. However, if you have data from other sources and you feel that my numbers aren't realistic, I'm very interested in discussing this further. You can contact me by email using info@flexibleRetirementPlanner.com

Jim